Jake Arrieta to the Phillies
Regarding that win-loss record, it depends on which projected data format you prefer. Baseball Prospectus likes PHI to now get 81 wins or .500. This is an increase of 4 games and in their projections puts PHI 3 games back of the 2nd wild card slot. FanGraphs projections call for PHI to win 75 games. There is no improvement expected on their projections.
There is a multitude of variance expected in his individual projected performance. Steamer shows 10 wins, 4.10 ERA, 177 inns, and 2.6 WAR. ZiPS shows 14 wins, 3.67 ERA, 161.67 inns, and 2.7 WAR. PECOTA 11 wins, 3.70 ERA, 171 inns, and 2.9 WAR. Steamer appears to be an outlier to the bad as ZiPS and PECOTA are very similar. However, they are all similar in regards to WAR. 2.9 WAR is the highest and 2.6 WAR is the lowest. The chart below is a gauge for WAR metric meanings.
| Scrub | 0-1 WAR |
| Role Player | 1-2 WAR |
| Solid Starter | 2-3 WAR |
| Good Player | 3-4 WAR |
| All-Star | 4-5 WAR |
| Superstar | 5-6 WAR |
| MVP | 6+ WAR |
Arrieta's recent performance does not match his best seasons. He is seemingly deteriorating but just how far? It is a known that his fastball velocity is not the same. Here is a chart indicating his velocity thru the years and how much he used it.
As the charts shows, 2017 was the lowest velocity at 92.1 avg. His best season was when he was Cy Young winner in 2015 at 94.6 avg. His fastball usage is still high at 63.9% of the time. Notice that in 2015 it was only 50.7%. That is because he threw his cutter 29.1%. In 2017, he threw it only 14.1% of the time. Which leads to the next chart. It is a chart that will show the effectiveness of his pitches. It is called Pitch Value. A score of zero is average, with negative scores being below average and positive scores being above average.
In this chart, I highlighted how great his fastball was from 2014 thru 2016 and his cutter. I circled his outlier performance in 2017. However, it is noteworthy that his cutter has been on the decline for 2 straight seasons. His fastball is still above average, but that is the only pitch that produces positive results for Jake. You can see why he was so successful in 2015. He had a dominant cutter to go with his fastball. He needs to find a solution to this problem.
Ok, so we know we are not getting a poor pitcher and we are not getting a Cy Young winner either. Based on his recent decline in pitch quality and velocity, pitching in PHI at Citizens Bank Park will be a challenge if he cannot keep the ball in the yard. 2017 saw his worst HR/9 rate and worst HR/FB rate since being in BAL. His HR/9 was 1.23 which was WAY worse than his previous 3 seasons in CHI (2016 0.73, 2015 0.39 and 2015 0.29). He allowed 23 HRs in 168.3 innings in 2017. 14% of his flyballs against him were HRs. This is not a good scenario for his new home stadium. His GB% was 45.1% again the worst since his BAL seasons.
The good news is that Arriets is a "Big Game" pitcher. He will toe the rubber in games that matter and battle to the end. PHI has not been involved in those type of games in recent seasons so he will be of extreme value if they can make a playoff run. He is a veteran of 8 MLB season and 10 years in pro ball. The PHI rotation has Nola w/3yrs, Eickhoff w/3yrs, Pivetta w/1yr and Velasquez w/3yrs of MLB service. Arrieta is the veteran by far and will be a great mentor for the youngsters. He provides unlimited value in that area.
My take is that Arrieta was a nice pickup but not one that will alone give PHI and edge over any of the playoff contenders. PHI is still too short to edge STL, ARI or SFG. They did improve upon teams like NYM, MIL, and COL. The NL has 3 elite teams ( LAD, WAS and CHC). The next tier is ARI, STL, and SFG. PHI finds themselves in the "just out" of the playoff hunt tier. Unless they add more, this is just a step in the right direction.
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