Why should we care about FIP?

Pitchers who control the game matter

When evaluating MLB games, we must look at many criteria to find edges. There is one that is extremely important. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). This is a gauge of how pitchers perform without reliance on their defense. This one thing can be the difference in games! Then there is the xFIP and SIERA which are predictive measures of FIP. The idea is that they can predict future performance and should be used as a dominant factor in handicapping.

Let's look at some games from yesterday box scores to see how this works. 

We 'll start with WSH @ CIN. The final score was 2-0 WSH. However, CIN had 7 hits and WSH only 6. In theory, the score should have been like 4-3 CIN winning. We get this based on 2 hits equals one run. Why did that not happen? We must look at total bases, total opportunities, then strikeouts. 1st for WSH. They had 6 hits, 1 double, 4 BBs, and 6 strikeouts. It means they had 7 total bases, 11 opportunities (total bases plus BBs) with 32 at-bats. The opportunities percentage is 11 / 32 for 34.4% pressure on the pitcher. CIN had 7 hits, 1 double, 2 BBs, and 14 strikeouts. They had 8 total bases, 11 opportunities in 34 at-bats. The opportunities percentage is 11/34 for 32.3% pressure on the pitcher. The pressure percentage is close, but because CIN struck out 14 times, they could not score their runs as needed. The WSH pitchers controlled the game which created the win.

Let's look at NYY @ TOR. The final score was 4-2 NYY. NYY had 8 hits so they should have scored 4 runs as they did. TOR had 5 hits so 2 or 3 runs is their suggested scoring. NYY had 8 hits, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 4 BBs, and 6 strikeouts. Their total bases were 13 plus the 4 BBs for 17 opportunities. They had 33 at-bats. Their opportunities percentage was 51.5%. That is enormous pressure on the pitchers. They only struck out 6 times so the ball was in play. For TOR, they had 5 hits, 4 2bs, 1 hr, 1 BB and 12 strikeouts. They had 12 total bases and 1 BB for 13 opportunities. They had 32 at-bats for opportunities percentage of 40.6%. They had an HR which made scoring easy for at least one of their runs and struck out 12 times lowering the pressure on the pitcher. As you should also see, extra-base hits are premium items for an offense. There is a sabermetric stat for that named ISO. When handicapping, do not overlook the value of ISO!

Ok, two more. This is LAA @ OAK. The final score was LAA 2-1. LAA had 6 hits so they should have had 3 runs and OAK had 7 hits so they should have had 3 or 4 runs. Here is another team with more hits and lost. LAA had 6 hits, 1 HR, 0 BB, and 7 strikeouts. Their total bases were 9 and no BBS so their opportunities are also 9. They had 32 at-bats. Their opportunities percentage was 28.1%. That is not much pressure, but the HR played a major role. OAK had 7 hits, 1 double, 1BB and 8 strikeouts. They had 8 total bases and 9 opportunities. They had 33 at-bats. Their opportunities percentage was 27.3%. Again, not much pressure and no HR. Both teams pitchers were able to control the game but the key was the HR showing the value of ISO.

Last one. PHI @ ATL. The final score was 5-4 PHI. PHI had 10 hits so 5 runs hit the target. They had 10 hits, 2 doubles, 2 home runs, 5 BBs, and 10 strikeouts. They had 18 total bases plus 5 BBs for 23 opportunities. They had 40 at-bats. Their opportunities percentage was 57.5% that is a lot of pressure on ATL pitchers. ATL had 9 hits so 4 or 5 runs is expected which they scored 4. They had 9 hits, 2 doubles, 5 BBs, and 9 strikeouts. They had 11 total bases plus 5 BBs to make 16 opportunities. They had 37 at-bats creating an opportunities percentage of 43.2%. They put pressure on, not nearly as much as PHI did, nor did they have many extra-base hits. PHI won with ISO and pitchers limiting the ISO of the ATL.

So this is how to break down a game once it is over. The goal is to learn how to see this in advance. We want to be on the side of the most opportunities and pressure. As the season goes, data will support a deep dive into this daily. Do all the homework you can. We can not see into the future, but we can get a "feel" for it if we look at the right data.