Box Score Recaps 06/02 and what we can learn! What is ISO?

Box Score Recaps 06/02

What can we learn?

It has become very obvious when you look at MLB games that the game has changed. There are many more strikeouts than hits, extra-base hits / total bases are the keys of the offense to win games and base on balls for hitters are significant plays for 2 reasons. If they occur in front of extra-base hits, they become run-scoring opportunities and they drive up pitch counts on the starting pitcher.

In the CHI @ NYM game, there were no less than 39 strikeouts! As this has become a normalcy in MLB, we should not be getting "flabbergasted" as we show our displeasure for this activity. Instead, we should just count these as regular outs. It is important to know what pitchers will get the strikeouts because that will reduce the number of balls in play. In MLB today, balls in play are more significant to the outcome of the game than they ever have been. It is imperative to know a Saber Metric stat named ISO. It is Isolated Power. The idea is a bit different from slugging percent in that ISO grades each event with more importance, therefore, isolating the value of extra-base hits making each added base significantly more important. The reason ISO and extra-bases hit are valuable is that in general, it takes 2 hits to score one run. If one of those hits is an extra-base hit, often times that is the only hit necessary to score a run! It does happen that teams with fewer hits win games. It is a RARE occurrence to see a team lose a game when they have more total bases than their opponent.

I have included the ranks for all MLB teams on the season for ISO. Please notice that there are only 3 teams with losing records in the top 16! The Dodgers will not have a losing record much longer which will make only 2 losing teams in the top 16! 

Lastly is the base on balls. In the recap for yesterday, teams with more base on balls finished with a record of 9-2! There is something about a "walk" that suggests dejection to a pitcher and a feeling of earning a base for a hitter. Hitters that work counts getting to see many pitches then drawing the walk feel like they "earned" it. It happens to motivate hitters and that seems to be the catalyst for success. Having that edge of motivation against a pitcher who is more dejected does result in winning baseball actions. These valuable "walks" are even more significant when they happen in front of extra-base hits. Now there is no need for 2 hits to score that one run as a walk and an extra-base can get it done.

It is a good exercise to look at the box scores! See what you can learn that can be used to help you win wagers!

Good Luck

Scott