Boston Red Sox 2017 Team Preview

2016 AL EAST 93-69 1^st

Home 47-34  Away 46-35  Division 43-33

2016 WAR          52.6  BAT 33.9  PIT 18.7 

2017 WAR Proj. 46.5  BAT 25.0  PIT 21.6

The 2016 Boston Red Sox had the best WAR in the AL at 52.6. The WAR was driven by offense. They were the best by far with 105.8 off. WAR. The Cubs were 2^nd with 61.6 off WAR. They were let down in the playoffs as their offense went cold vs the CLE pitchers. BOS only hit .214 and scored 7 runs in the three-game series vs the AL Champs. BOS had the best wRC+ (weighted runs created) team in MLB in 2016 with 113.  BOS led in SLG, R, wOBA and AVG. Virtually every offensive metric they either led all of MLB, led the AL or were second.  In fact, BOS has 3 Silver Sluggers. They are SS Xander Bogaerts, OF Mookie Betts and DH David Ortiz. Obviously, they will need to find replacement value as Ortiz has retired. The Red Sox are what is great about MLB in the year 2017.

They are young, talented and have a veteran pitching staff. Their youth is led by OF Mookie Betts. Betts was in the running for MVP last season. He led with 7.8 WAR. He was 2^nd (to Ortiz) in wRC+. He is the best defender and base runner for BOS too. He hit 31 HRs, scored 122 runs, had 113 RBI and 26 SBs! There is no doubt he will perform at the highest level again in 2017. The 2016 team also had key performances from 2B Pedroia (5.2 WAR), OF Bradley Jr (4.8 WAR), and SS Bogaerts (4.7 WAR). Ortiz was 4.4 WAR and led with 38 HRs and 127 RBI. 1B Ramirez and C Leon also contributed over 2 WAR.

The 2017 team will again be led by Betts as he projects at 5.6 WAR. Bogaerts, Pedroia, and Bradley are all back projecting over 3 WAR each. 3 WAR or above is All-Star caliber. They will be one of few teams with 4 All Stars with one a possible MVP. The offense does take a bit of a blow in the power department. Ortiz 38 bombs have not been replaced. Even though they could have 2 30 HRs hitters in Betts and Ramirez, their production had 3 in 2016. The outfield will consist of Betts, Bradley and number one MLB prospect Andrew Benintendi. Benintendi will be more of a doubles hitter with base running skills. The middle infield is also set with Bogaerts and Pedroia. The corners will be interesting. 1B Ramirez did perform at hitting in his position, but he ranked 50^th out of 55 1Bs in defense. At 3B this season, the Red Sox are relying on a trim and in shape Pablo Sandoval to make a tremendous comeback. It remains to be seen if either will be a great fit. They certainly could do worse, though. They also acquired Mitch Moreland who should see time at 1B and DH. C Sandy Leon is expected to come back to earth this season. His projection has him at 1.0 WAR down from 2.5 WAR last season. There isn’t much in his history that supports him hitting .310 again this season. He is a career .254 hitter. This offense will again be at the top or near the top of MLB.

The 2016 Red Sox pitching staff has the Cy Young winner on it. Yes, Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young last season. He earned a 5.2 WAR with 3.15 ERA. It was nearly twice as good as any season of his career (2013 Tigers 2.9 WAR). He accumulated 22 Wins and threw 223 innings. His LOB% was a key to his success. It was 74.3%. Only one other season was higher. The ACE is David Price who earned 4.5 WAR. He did get his ERA down to 3.99 even though he struggled early in the season. He threw 230 innings and won 17 games. Beyond these two, it was knuckleballer Steven Wright holding the 3^rd rotation spot in a surprisingly good season. He earned 2.8 WAR and 13 Wins. The rest was rounded out by Drew Pomeranz, Clay Buchholz, and Eduardo Rodriguez. None of which were stellar.

The 2017 version will be MUCH stronger. They acquired ACE lefty Chris Sale. He earned 5.2 WAR last season. He has earned at least 5.2 WAR in each of his last 3 season including a 6.2 WAR 2015 season. He should be expected to get to those levels again. Price should then thrive in the #2 slot (not getting the opponent’s ACE). He is projected at 4.5 WAR. Porcello should come down a notch or two. He is a great #3 guy, though. It is not fair to expect another Cy Young season but it is fair to expect an All Start type season. Last season he found a slider and changeup. His pitch values for the Fb were +13.0, SL +8.0 and CH +10. It is the 1^st time in his career he had 2 DD values positive and the best value for his slider ever. He should not lose all of that this season. That brings in Rodriguez and Pomeranz. Rodriguez was coming back from injury last season so he should be better this year. Pomeranz was getting used to a new environment as he was traded from SD mid-season.  He too should be better. Now they can use Wright in spot starts as needed. Starting pitching will be a strength in 2017.

The relief group in 2016 was set to be a strength and turned in a top 10 performance. Ranking 9^th with 4.9 WAR. They threw the 3^rd fewest innings as their starters went deep into games. Their closer is Craig Kimbrel. He earned 1.2 WAR but was injured for some of the season. He had 31 saves (fewest of his career) and had 6 losses (most of his career). He had an ERA of 3.40 whereas his YTD ERA is 1.86! He needs to have a rebound in 2017. Brad Ziegler earned 0.8 WAR and Uehara 0.6 WAR. Both these players are no longer there.

The key to the 2017 pen is Kimbrel bouncing back and the new guys stepping up in big spots. This year’s team seems to be void of pitchers who have been in the big spots. They will be reliant on Tyler Thornburg and Joe Kelly for example. They will be the guys to get the ball to Kimbrel. I believe this to the weakest area on this team. They project at 3.9 WAR which is still 12^th in MLB.

The Red Sox are an excellent defensive team too. They have their issues at 1B, but they are 6^th in MLB and 4^th in the AL in defense. They are 4^th in DRS (defense runs saved). Betts is 3^rd in RF in MLB. Pedroia is 2^nd in MLB at 2B. Bradley Jr is 8^th ranked CF.

BOS won 93 games last season. The season total wins’ price is 90.5 for 2017. I believe them to again be the best in the AL East. No one did enough or anything, in the East to contend with BOS for the top spot. I call for them to win the AL East. Their starting pitching will be dominant and no one can hit with them. They should go OVER the 90.5-win total. I see them at 92-93 wins like 2016.