| AMERICAN LEAGUE | |||||||
| Team | Record | Money | Home Money | Away Money | Fav Record | Dog Record | Streak |
| Boston | 93-72 | ($11) | ($420) | $409 | 76-55 | 17-17 | 5L |
| Toronto | 94-77 | ($596) | ($567) | ($29) | 80-56 | 14-21 | 1L |
| Baltimore | 89-74 | $1,130 | $1,004 | $126 | 56-35 | 33-39 | 1L |
| NY Yankees | 84-78 | $47 | $873 | ($826) | 54-37 | 30-41 | 1L |
| Tampa Bay | 68-94 | ($2,526) | ($1,209) | ($1,317) | 36-46 | 32-48 | 2W |
| Cleveland | 104-72 | $1,053 | $846 | $207 | 85-50 | 19-22 | 3L |
| Detroit | 86-75 | $815 | $158 | $657 | 55-32 | 31-43 | 2L |
| Kansas City | 81-81 | ($127) | $827 | ($954) | 43-22 | 38-59 | 4L |
| Chi White Sox | 78-84 | ($523) | $474 | ($997) | 46-37 | 32-47 | 2L |
| Minnesota | 59-103 | ($2,776) | ($1,866) | ($910) | 14-21 | 45-82 | 2W |
| Texas | 95-70 | $2,462 | $1,631 | $831 | 52-33 | 43-37 | 5L |
| Seattle | 86-76 | $216 | $19 | $197 | 57-46 | 29-30 | 2L |
| Houston | 84-78 | ($645) | ($758) | $113 | 62-58 | 22-20 | 1L |
| LA Angels | 74-88 | ($829) | ($417) | ($412) | 40-31 | 34-57 | 1W |
| Oakland | 69-93 | ($1,366) | ($1,326) | ($40) | 22-27 | 47-66 | 2W |
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | |||||||
| Team | Record | Money | Home Money | Away Money | Fav Record | Dog Record | Streak |
| Washington | 97-70 | ($474) | ($267) | ($207) | 86-46 | 11,24 | 2L |
| NY Mets | 87-76 | ($389) | ($524) | $135 | 67-49 | 20-27 | 2L |
| Miami | 79-82 | ($54) | ($538) | $484 | 41-45 | 38-37 | 2L |
| Philadelphia | 71-91 | ($234) | ($357) | $123 | 25-17 | 46-74 | 1W |
| Atlanta | 68-93 | $475 | ($1,273) | $1,748 | 11,14 | 57-79 | 2W |
| Chi Cubs | 114-64 | $360 | $695 | ($335) | 109-56 | 5,8 | 3W |
| St. Louis | 86-76 | ($263) | ($1,862) | $1,599 | 66-52 | 20-24 | 4W |
| Pittsburgh | 78-83 | ($547) | ($824) | $277 | 47-51 | 31-32 | 3L |
| Milwaukee | 73-89 | $20 | $519 | ($499) | 24-21 | 49-68 | 2W |
| Cincinnati | 68-94 | ($885) | ($176) | ($709) | 25-13 | 43-81 | 1L |
| LA Dodgers | 96-77 | ($1,069) | $308 | ($1,377) | 86-58 | 11,19 | 3L |
| San Francisco | 89-78 | ($581) | ($362) | ($219) | 67-47 | 22-31 | 1L |
| Colorado | 75-87 | ($481) | ($223) | ($258) | 36-32 | 39-55 | 2L |
| Arizona | 69-93 | ($1,710) | ($1,684) | ($26) | 35-32 | 34-61 | 3W |
| San Diego | 68-94 | ($159) | $564 | ($723) | 16-10 | 52-84 | 4L |
By the end of the season, only 9 teams were in the positive for money earned. It means there were 21 teams that did not show positive earnings when wagered on! Only 3 teams made any real money as they were over $1000 net earnings. 12 teams were positive at home and 13 teams were positive on the road. There certainly is more negative money than positive money. However, we don't really bet this way, though.
There are some very key numbers to be aware of. The favorite won 57.76% of all games in 2016. The winning percentage broken into a betting looks like this -137. To win betting on favorites, you must really strive to stay close to this line. If you bet above, you are getting a negative EV (extra value). It is ok and acceptable to play on opportunities that present themselves above -137, however, they should be exceptions. The reason is that you are now required to win at a higher level than favorites normally do making your chance of winning less than required to earn a positive EV.
Betting on Underdogs can offset some of the negative EV as well because they pay out larger than a favorite. Underdogs win at 42.24% of the time. This is +137 as a line. Usually, the favorite would be -152 in this spot, so we should NOT be looking to play on the FAV here. Again, we are looking for positive EV, so playing above +137 needs to be well thought out and properly balanced with your wagers. If you can win at a higher rate than 42.24% then you get to your positive EV too.
Most think that the home underdog provides the best value, but that is just not true. Yes, the home underdog wins more than an underdog but not enough to just carte blanche look for those opportunities. Home underdogs won 43.13% of the games last season (+132 as a line). This percentage is not even 1% more than underdogs as a total. It is true that positive EV should be easier to find, but the difference is so small that there are other ways to grow EV.
We will look at things like starter pitcher value on pitches he throws, XFIP, SIERA, bullpen strength, innings expected, double-digit hit games, sOPS+, defense and more. This information very acutely defines specific opportunities in a very narrow number winning chances, hence strengthing our EV values. There truly isn't a large number of EV positive MLB games to wager. There are generally several daily, but no more than a handful and it takes very specific work to find them. I hope everyone finds their choices and makes great choices. MLB is gaining popularity and is growing at the ticket windows. Know what you are doing out there!
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