I have said this many times over. There is so much more data available to analyze, that game comparisons become complex yet produce clear advantages against bookmaker lines. It is a MUST to get analytics to create the EV positive scenarios required to make MLB wagers. Today I am talking about a pitcher's "stuff" and how we can exploit those advantages.
First of all, lets get some basic understanding of Plate Discipline concepts. These are statistics that tell us how often a pitcher or a hitter swings and makes contact with pitches.The idea is that a pitchers "stuff", which is a combination of velocity, movement, and location of pitches, can be compared to league average and with the opposing starting pitcher, thus providing a detailed view of the effect on an offense they will likely have.
There are several Plate Discipline stats however we will be using just two. We are looking at O-Swing % which is swings outside the strike zone and SwStr% which is swings and misses. O-Swing% is important because this is the rate a pitcher gets a hitter to swing at or "chase" pitches that are not strikes. It is a good indication of movement and location. SwStr% is important because it is the rate hitters swing and miss period. It is a good indication of all the aspects of velocity, movement, and location. The measurements to consider are where a pitcher ranks versus the league average. The O-Swing% avg is 30% and the SwStr% avg is 9.5%. Anything above these averages will provide EV positive to one pitcher versus the hitters. Compared to the opposing pitcher, there could be HUGE EV as one may not have dynamic stuff like the other creating a gap of who can affect the offense.
Ok now to some charts. I will post the top 15 guys in each O-Swing% and SwStr%.
O-Swing %
Masahiro Tanaka was the best in MLB at getting swings outside the strike zone. He had almost 38% of swings at pitches that were not strikes! It should not be surprising to Sale, Kluber, and Scherzer on this list. They dominate everything that is positive analytics for pitchers. It is surprising to see guys like Ivan Nova, Dan Straily, and Martin Perez on this list. However, it does show how undervalued some guys can be thus creating that EV we are looking to pile up.
SwStr%
This list is more important because these are the pitchers that got the most swing and misses. It should also not surprise you to see Kluber and Scherzer at the top of this list. They were the Cy Young winners last season.
Ok so now you have seen the best in MLB but how does that create EV? So we will have a matchup and see what happens. We will not use anyone from the top 15 list. Here is a matchup I found on one of my spreadsheets from last season. This is a game where Zach Davies MIL was pitching against Edwin Jackson. The line was WSH -130 as they were the home team. Davies had a 26.9% O-Swing % and a 7.7% SwStr%. These rates are both below the average so his impact on the opponent's offense should not be great. Jackson had a 29.5% O-Swing% and a 10.1% SwStr%. His O-Swing rate is at MLB average and his SwStr rate is above average. He should be able to have an effect on the MIL offense. These are hidden edges and advantages that are not seen unless you know what to look for. This data should NEVER be used by itself. The purpose to find data that provides EV positive scenarios. I use 5 segments of starting pitcher analysis. They are Metrics, Run Prevention, Stuff, History, and Regression. O-Swing% and SwStr% fall into the Stuff segment. Velocity check and Hard hit % also are in the Stuff segment. In all, there are 19 articles in the 5 segments.This indicates that there is more involvement than Plate Discipline stats and the point is that we get clarity if we look at the proper data and know how to do use that data.
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