The MOST underrated aspect of MLB handicapping is simply OFFENSE!

The MOST underrated aspect of MLB handicapping is simply OFFENSE!

MLB handicappers spend most of their time (and rightfully so) on the games starting pitchers. The starting pitcher quality determines the lines and therefore should get the majority of the work. Baseball today has a larger comparison that goes unnoticed by too many though. When most people, let alone handicappers, can teel you the variance quality of the starting pitchers, very few even look at the offenses. This is a large mistake and a missed opportunity. Just like the pitchers, there is variance in an offense that can be used for handicapping games. 

Let's just say that Team A is playing Team B where both pitchers are #4 starters and there is not much variance in their quality. This will set a line something line Team A -125 because they are the home team. What if I told you that Team B was currently #5 in wRAA, #3 in wOBA and #4 in wRC+? Then I told you team A was ranked 24th in all those categories across the board. Would that matter to you? Based on the topic of this article, the answer to that question is it should matter.

In many cases, there are larger advantages for a team in the offense than there is in the pitching. This can come into play in a game like the one above where the pitching is equal, or it can come into play when considering the value of an underdog against a quality team that is slumping at the plate. It is important to know what to look for though. A team with an HR edge is simply not a situation that really matters. Sabermetrics has well-defined stats for specific things is those stats measure. wRAA (Weighted Runs Above Average) measures the number of runs a player contributes to his team above an average player. Comparing teams, it is the number of runs above an average offense this team is! This is very useful information. wOBA (Weighted On Base Average) gives credit to the batter for each outcome individually not treating a hit or an at-bat as one thing, thus an extra-base hit has more value. It is a better stat than OBP, batting average, or RBI. It is a "catch-all" stat to provide the hitter's comprehensive offensive value. wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) is very similar to wRAA however it is shown on a scale where 100 is average, thus you will a 104 wRC+. It means that the team creates runs 4% better than an average team does. It is calculated much the same where the individual value of outcomes matters. 

Using these scales and data points, we will get a very clear picture of the offensive edge a team has on its opponent. We can match the offense up to the pitcher's 3 true outcomes strategies. We can quantify run variances based on offensive output, which in turn will allow us to make wagers based on the strength of an offense over the opponent. It works like this. Team A has -2.2 wRAA, 87 wRC+ and .290 wOBA. It means they are 2 runs worse than an average offense, 13% worse than an average offense and .050 (avg is .347) worse in overall offensive value. If Team B has and averages everything, they are minimally 2 runs better with a stretch to 3. If they are above average, they are likely 3-4+ runs better. Now we can make wagers. If the starting pitcher can not affect the scoring probabilities enough, we can easily see where the value is. 

Sure there are more elements to this like ISO, BB% and K% to name some, but the premiss is to illustrate the value of evaluating a team on offense as it oftentimes will be an overlooked aspect of the game where some opportunities have left on the table.