Starting pitchers need to be looked at via Team Wins, not personal wins!
MLB investing oftentimes is about your team winning the game. In many cases there is no spread as we use the Money Line most often, thus a winning ticket just needs your team to win the game. A starting pitcher's personal won-lost record is 100% meaningless to our goal. The following charts will indicate this. Likewise, if we just use his value in the team starts, we can actually start getting an edge.
A team win is earned for the starting pitcher in any game for which he started and the team wins. Sure this record does not give us value he produced in terms of quality, but we have other measures for that. This does tell us that he pitched well enough for his team to win the game. This is exactly what we are trying to accomplish!
The first chart is the team win pct% win the starter pitches a game. The 2nd chart is his personal won-lost record. There are some very interesting findings and maybe some that are just obvious. The number one pitcher was MIL Brandon Woodruff. I bet you would not have seen that coming! He made 22 starts and his team won 18 of those starts. He personally only won 11 games. The value is knowing that if you bet on him last season, you would have won 81.8% of your wagers! CLE Adam Plutko is ranked 9th! He made 20 starts and his team won 14 of them! Again, another guy who you would have underestimated his value to your bankroll.
On the other side of that coin are guys like TEX Lance Lynn. He ranked 11th in wins. However, his team won only 1 more game than they lose when he was on the mound. His win total was 16 and his team's win total was 17 while losing 16 times when he started. Another one is SEA Marco Gonzalez who ranked 12th in wins with 16. His team had 17 wins when he started and they also had 17 losses. Below are the charts of the top 35 guys in both teams win % and personal won-lost record. FOr us gamblers, there is value in certain results we just have to know what to look for!
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