Sabermetrics vs StatCast Metrics
Sabermetrics are sound and true results of specific data
that either show results or can be used to predict future results. Data such as
wOBA, wRC+, wRAA, and WAR are staples of Sabermetric data. We can use them in
prognostication and handicapping games or teams. Data such as FIP, SIERA and
xFIP are staples of pitching performance. This data separates players and teams
by specific criteria which in turn then handicaps strengths and weaknesses so
we can find value to wager on.
StatCast metrics are the results of specific actions. They have measured velocities of balls hit off bats or how many times the barrel of the
bat hits the ball. This data is NOT very useful in daily wagering whatsoever.
Sabermetrics does have data representing hard-hit rates, medium hit rates and soft
hit rates so why does it really matter what the arch of the ball flight was, or
how many mph exit velocity was?
The way I see and have heard MLB managers speak of StatCast
measures is in terms of process. StatCast has a metric called xwOBA. It is a
predictor for weighted on base percentage. The calculation is Quality of
contact + K + BB. This data does not pinpoint to trueness worthy of making
wagers. It is specific to players, not teams. Looking from the pitcher side, there
is data showing previous results against the batters they will face so maybe a predictive
value there. MLB managers know of this data and they use it for the process of
hitting or pitching. The theory is that if a player is following a good process,
his numbers will get better because from batter to batter or pitch to pitch it
is sound. It makes sense to me. But it does not indicate anything regarding the quality
of the player or team. It does to a degree indicate positive or negative results
that should come. How soon?
Sabermetrics can do similar things regarding xFIP. I can see
where a pitcher is going to get in trouble and where he is dominant. I can also
bet on those edges. I can combine data for pitchers so it flows together, and I
can see the process! FIP, + GB%, + BB%, +K%, + O-Swing%, +SwStr%+, hard-hit
rate, and BABIP. This data will tell me how he controls the game from the
mound, how many runners he should allow, how hitters fair against his pitches,
whether the ball takes flight when hit and more! Sabermetrics is specific. When
grouped together, you can tell a story and get a reasonable conclusion on how
teams and players are going to perform. I
can specifically indicate a team is 11% better offensively using Sabermetrics
which is a very clear edge. There is no such thing in StatCast data. Barrels,
exit velocity, and xwOBA are all nice things and might have value to the Fantasy
world, but there is not much value to this data in sports wagering.
If you are interested in learning how to do this, I have a
Discord channel where we discuss this plus, I give out daily selections. It is
$29.99 per mo.
You can follow me on Twitter @Webbie20MLB
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